2024 LABR Mixed Draft Review
I thought that studying recent NFBC ADP data would be an effective way to prepare for Tuesday night’s LABR Mixed draft. Since I knew in advance that I’d be drafting out of the #12 spot in this 15-teamer, I could map out the first five or six rounds with the goal of choosing an ideal combination of players that would form the foundation of my squad. I knew that unexpected picks would happen and adjustments would need to be made. But if you told me that I’d end up drafting none of the trio of players I hoped to select in the first three rounds, I wouldn’t believe you. Instead of Trea Turner, Austin Riley and either Randy Arozarena or Adolis Garcia, it was Jose Ramirez, Matt Olson and Devin Williams.
Ramirez was my first-round backup plan if I missed out on Turner. Being that Turner is coming off an uneven season that included a highly disappointing first half followed by a spectacular second half, a case could be made that Ramirez is the safer choice. Although I wasn’t planning on drafting a first baseman until the middle rounds, Olson’s availability at pick #19 was such a pleasant surprise that I couldn’t pass up the opportunity. Counting on another 54-homer season might be unreasonable but 40 homers, 110 RBI and 100 runs isn’t an overly ambitious projection. As for Williams, I wanted an elite closer and the Milwaukee ninth-inning man is arguably the best of the bunch. As it turned out, my Williams pick at 3.12 began a major saves run that saw six additional closers go off the board by the end of the fourth round. Unless I drafted a stopper at 4.04, where I took my first starting pitcher, I would have failed to accomplish my closer goal.
After navigating through this early-round detour, I took a deep breath and began the process of assembling the rest of my roster. What were my biggest takeaways from the remainder of the draft?
The uselessness of ADP
So much for utilizing ADP as at least a partial guide. Considering that Arozarena’s NFBC Draft Champions ADP this month is 45, I figured the likelihood of landing him at pick #42 was at worst 50/50. Not even close. The Tampa Bay outfielder was the 30th player selected. On the late-round starting pitching front, I was fairly confident that I could wait until roughly round 25 to draft bounce-back candidate Jameson Taillon. He was gone before the conclusion of round 20. Sure, there were plenty of instances where someone was drafted later than expected, but the lesson here is that if you really want to roster a certain player, you might need to go out of your comfort zone and draft him a round or two earlier than ADP suggests. This is especially true in an industry league where the knowledge level of the competition is so high that there are no true sleepers.
Spreading out stolen bases even more
My stolen-base strategy has always been to grab one 25-30 SB guy followed by two or three 20-SB contributors. By the end of the draft, my projected stolen-base total would fall somewhere in the 100-110 range. This draft played out a little differently as I wasn’t able to acquire a reliable secondary speedster to pair with Ramirez. Instead, I assembled a larger group of players who could each steal double-digit bases (Grissom, Pena, Springer, Meadows, maybe Castellanos). I’m not thrilled about this but if I can find one additional speed source in-season via the waiver wire, I could be in good shape.
Change in second closer approach
By no means did I plan on taking this route but I’m not too excited about the mid-tier closer choices this year. Rather than drafting Kenley Jansen in the 10th round, I opted for Sean Murphy, who carries top-5 catcher potential. Robert Stephenson could begin the season in a setup role but it might not be long before he replaces the inconsistent Carlos Estevez as the Angels’ ninth-inning choice. He was well worth the risk in the 13th round. Heading into the season with only one definite closer makes me a bit nervous but there are plenty of other managers in this league who are in the same position.
Embracing thin track records
What do Vaughn Grissom, Junior Caminero and Parker Meadows have in common? All three of these hitters have played fewer than 65 big-league games. Throw in Nelson Velazquez, whose major-league experience includes a mere 130 games, and I’ve gathered quite the group of unproven players. This is unlike me, as I tend to prioritize track record until the very late rounds. But as 15th, 16th, 18th and 19th round picks, there isn’t much downside involved here. After getting a brief taste of the majors last year, Caminero is expected to open 2024 in the minors, but he could make an immediate impact when called up. Grissom is an intriguing post-hype sleeper candidate who should benefit from finally receiving everyday playing time. Velazquez could reach the 25-homer plateau with regular at-bats while Meadows has the ability to emerge as a helpful power/speed fantasy asset.
With my Tout Wars draft only two days away, there isn’t much time left for LABR draft pick second-guessing. That’s a good thing.
Click here to see the full LABR Mixed draft results.
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