Strange But True (The Hitters)
“The standings mean nothing until Memorial Day.”
Every year, I give this same piece of advice to fantasy owners either overly giddy about their first-place position or overly depressed about their slow start. Just like fantasy league standings, the early statistical leaderboards often include several surprising names. Some of these players will go on to enjoy career-best seasons but many will eventually disappear from the leaderboards. After all, there’s a reason why they were surprises.
I’ll post my weekly two-start pitcher picks tomorrow, but for today, let’s begin to run through each of the standard 5x5 roto category leaders, looking at one player who doesn’t seem to belong. We’ll start with hitters before turning our attention to pitchers next week.
Eric Hosmer: .376 AVG (1st)
Hosmer performed well during the COVID-shortened 2020 season but provided his fantasy owners with very little last year, batting .269 to go along with 12 homers and 65 RBIs in 151 games. This degree of production doesn’t even warrant mixed-league consideration, so the fact that he went undrafted this spring in the vast majority of mixed leagues wasn’t surprising. The fact that he heads into Friday’s games leading the majors in batting average is surprising to say the least. But before we get all excited about a career renaissance, let’s keep in mind that his BABIP stands at a completely unsustainable .420 and he’s actually making less hard contact than he did last year. If you can fill a certain category need by trading Hosmer, now is the time to make that move.
Anthony Rizzo: 9 HR (Tied for 1st)
Despite Rizzo’s fine play following his trade to the Yankees last year, the fantasy market was far from bullish on him entering this season. He was getting up there in age and was no longer a lock for 25+ homers and 100+ RBIs. He’s also dealt with some back issues in recent years. How low was the enthusiasm level surrounding Rizzo? So low that he was taken 18th on average among 1B-eligible players in NFBC Draft Champions leagues. Even in Mixed Auction Tout Wars, an OBP league, he went for only $9. Maybe we all underestimated just how well-suited his swing is for Yankee Stadium. Note that seven of his nine longballs have come at home. Will Rizzo reach the 30-HR plateau for the first time since 2017? I’ll say yes.
Willy Adames: 21 R (Tied for 3rd)
In a rare occasion where the Rays actually dealt away a young player at the wrong time, Adames’ bat caught fire after his trade to Milwaukee last season. In 99 games for the Brewers, he registered a .285 batting average to go along with 20 homers, 58 RBIs and 61 runs. But I wasn’t convinced. I needed to see more than a great two-thirds of a season before making him a draft day target. And there were plenty of other fantasy owners who felt the same way. Adames was purchased for a modest $8 in Mixed Auction Tout Wars, so it’s not like the demand was through the roof. At this point, only a prolonged injury absence would prevent him from passing the 80-run mark.
Rowdy Tellez: 22 RBI (4th)
The Tellez story is very similar as his play improved dramatically following his mid-season trade to the Brewers. Rowdy launched seven homers while racking up 28 RBIs in 56 games for his new club last season and has picked up right where he left off, with seven home runs to go along with the 22 RBIs through 25 games this year. Tellez has always possessed plus power but has yet to put together that true breakout campaign. Perhaps he’s about to do just that in his age-27 season. He falls under the category of someone I wouldn’t be trying to acquire on the trade market but at the same time wouldn’t be actively looking to trade if I was fortunate enough to grab him off the waiver wire.
Jorge Mateo: 7 SB (2nd)
Addressing the stolen base category has been a real challenge so far this year. We’re now a full month into the season and only nine players have swiped at least five bags. Mateo is the only member of this group who wasn’t even drafted in most mixed leagues, so the Mateo owner in your league is probably doing pretty well in steals. In 57 games as a member of the Orioles dating back to last season, Mateo has now stolen 12 bases, so he’s clearly a difference-maker in the category if he continues to get everyday playing time, which is likely. The Baltimore roster isn’t exactly loaded with quality starting options. If speed is a clear need and the cost is reasonable, I would not be opposed to targeting Mateo in a trade even though he might be nothing more than a one-category specialist.
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